Eight retrospective case studies on landmark AI infrastructure deals + decisions: Blackstone/QTS, Microsoft/Constellation TMI, Amazon/Talen FERC rejection, CoreWeave post-IPO, Iron Mountain pivot, Digital Realty/Teraco, FTC/Nvidia-ARM, CMA UK cloud investigation. Scheduled Oct 6 → Oct 22 2026.
The Investment Layer scorecard flagged single-tenant concentration risk on the Oracle-OpenAI structure pre-close. In March 2026 that exact risk materialised. Oracle and OpenAI dropped the expansion; Microsoft stepped in to lease the dropped capacity. RESTRUCTURE, with realized-prediction validation.
The wired-recourse mechanic in market-tested form. High uncontracted principal at maturity, but CoreWeave's parent guarantee absorbs at Ba2/BB+ corporate credit. AMBER on the framework's 2x2, not RED. The distinction most credit coverage misses.
Walking the September 2024 Blackstone + CPP acquisition of AirTrunk through both AI infrastructure scorecards. LOW physical + LOW thesis + GREEN veto = UNDERWRITE (Premier). The calibration anchor for what a clean deal scores on the framework.