Deep dives

adikumar.co · investment frameworks for the AI power buildout · Deep dives
Deep dives

The series

Long-form work read sequentially. Each series builds an argument across multiple essays.

These are the eight sequential series on this site. Read them in order for the full argument, or use Topics to jump into specific areas curated across series. New series added roughly monthly.

Flagship essays

Standalone long-form pieces that sit alongside the series. Direct entry when you have one specific question.

Published Sep 24 2026 · standalone
The 800V DC Power Sidecar: Anatomy, Conversion Boundary, and Value Migration

The rack-adjacent power-conversion object that converts facility AC into ~800V DC for the compute rack. 10-layer BOM, semiconductor $/MW, the conversion boundary between sidecar and compute rack, and what could kill the sidecar.

Delta 660 kW anchor
Published Sep 3 2026 · standalone reference
The AI Semiconductor Waterfall: $34M of Silicon Per MW of Compute

Semiconductor intensity per MW of AI compute decomposed across compute, storage, networking, and power layers. 1 MW Blackwell reference. Semiconductor $ exposure by category for every AI capex dollar.

Reference piece
Published Aug 25 2026 · deal teardown
Empower Semiconductor: What ADI Bought for $1.5B

ADI acquired Empower for $1.5B in July 2026. Deep-dive on what the acquisition actually buys: ECAP silicon capacitors, FinFast switching, the strategic logic, and the comparables that justify the price.

ADI + Empower
Published Aug 5 2026 · market analysis
Pricing Under Scarcity

Shortage is not pricing power. Ten commercial positions across the AI infrastructure chain, sorted by the two conditions that determine which positions actually capture rent.

Ten positions sorted
Published Aug 20 2026 · DC-DC Transition 11/13
Vendor economics: who wins the 800 VDC transition

48V incumbents face 20-40 percent revenue-at-risk. Vertiv, Eaton, and Schneider win through 2-3x content-dollar expansion per rack. Wide-bandgap semiconductor content expands, and the specific competitive dynamics by vendor cohort.

Winners + losers

AI Power Chain stack essays

Deep-dive essays on specific layers of the AI Power Chain framework. Companion technical essays sit alongside each market essay.

Market essay · AI Power Chain Layer 6
The Modular Datacenter Stack

Grey-space power skids, white-space IT-hall pods, the four interfaces between them, and the 2024-2026 M&A window that reshaped the vendor field.

Market essay · AI Power Chain Layer 2
The Capacitor Stack · 800V DC transition

Hybrid supercapacitors (HSCs), lithium-ion capacitors (LICs), electrolytic capacitors in the AI accelerator ride-through role. HSC supply bottleneck.

Technical companion · AI Power Chain Layer 1
The On-Package Delivery Stack Technical Companion

BSPDN, substrate-integrated VRMs, IVR topology options, multi-phase power delivery for 2500A-class accelerators.

Companion to the On-Package Delivery Stack market essay

Currently publishing

Ten essays · publishing Mon Oct 5 → Mon Oct 26 2026
The Regulatory Layer

The ten regulatory workstreams determining whether AI infrastructure capex gets delivered on time. FERC + ISO reform, state PUCs, EPA, local zoning, CFIUS + international FDI, export controls, EU compliance stack, NEC/UL/NFPA, labour + immigration. Each can be a project killer; best operators treat all ten as Stage-1 architecture inputs.

In progress
Eight essays · publishing Tue Oct 6 → Thu Oct 22 2026
Case Studies

Retrospective analysis of consequential AI infrastructure transactions and decisions. Blackstone/QTS, Microsoft/Constellation TMI, Amazon/Talen FERC rejection, CoreWeave post-IPO, Iron Mountain pivot, Digital Realty/Teraco, FTC/Nvidia-ARM, CMA UK cloud investigation. Each with retrospective scorecard and transferable lessons.

In progress
Fifteen essays · publishing Tue Oct 27 → Tue Dec 15 2026
Tech Spotlights

Specific companies and technologies reshaping AI infrastructure. Vicor factorized power, Menlo Micro SSCBs, Skeleton HSCs, Navitas/EPC GaN, Wolfspeed SiC retrospective, CoolIT + Submer cooling, Kairos + X-energy SMRs, Fervo geothermal, Bloom SOFC, Cerebras + Groq compute, specialised GPU cloud, Ayar Labs/Lightmatter CPO, Compass + Vantage modular.

Scheduled

Foundational series

Thirteen essays · complete
The DC-DC Transition

The transition from 48V AC-DC to 800V DC distribution for AI infrastructure. Historical 48V, why 800V now, arc behaviour + protection, grounding + fault detection, battery + UPS restructure, retrofit vs greenfield, cooling co-emergence, power quality + grid interaction, standards convergence (OCP + IEC + NEC + IEEE), vendor economics, commissioning + skills, ten-year installed-base view.

Ongoing updates
Six-layer framework · complete
The AI Power Chain

Competitive framework across the AI-infrastructure power stack: capacitors (hybrid supercapacitors), wide-bandgap semiconductors (SiC + GaN), thermal (liquid cooling), interconnect, on-package delivery, modular datacentre. Each layer with vendor screen, TAM analysis, and design-win dynamics.

Reference series
Eight essays · complete
The Investment Layer

Capital flows and structures underwriting AI infrastructure. Hyperscaler capex, PE infrastructure vehicles, ratebase economics, contract-collateralised debt, sovereign wealth, cross-border structuring, exit optionality. Approximately $500B-1T of committed capital analyzed across the eight essays.

Reference series
Fourteen essays + three supplements · complete
Due Diligence for the AI Buildout

Full DD methodology for AI infrastructure transactions. Scoping, team + timeline, market DD, customer/pricing DD, product architecture, manufacturing + supply chain, QoE + working capital, capex + growth economics, org + personnel, legal, regulatory + ESG + cyber, deal structure, financing, post-close validation. Plus three supplements including a full Eaton/Boyd worked example.

Reference methodology

Recurring formats

Recurring
Deal Tear-Downs

Deep architectural analysis of specific AI infrastructure transactions as they are announced. Format: deal structure, valuation logic, comparable analysis, red flags, transferable lessons.

Ongoing
Recurring
Deal Watch

Analysis of the transaction pipeline as it develops. Preliminary reads on announced or emerging deals before full teardowns.

Ongoing
Monthly · 5th of month
What Changed. Monthly Recap

One-page recap of the month in AI infrastructure. What moved, what the market is getting wrong. Feeds the Living Indexes (once launched) and provides regular structured coverage across NVIDIA, OCP, hyperscalers, and power equipment.

Published 5th of each month

Foundational series · additions

Series anchor · framework (five stages complete)
The Grid-to-Chip framework

Cross-layer synthesis following the electron from grid interconnect to accelerator die. Vendor concentration, standards state, capex intensity and inflection years per stage. Composes with the AI Power Chain, Investment Layer and Due Diligence frameworks. Anchor for the ongoing series of stage-by-stage deep-dives.

Reference series
Grid-to-Chip P4 companion · rack architecture
Mount Diablo · the open rack architecture that forced NVIDIA up the stack

Deep-dive on the OCP Mt. Diablo 400 rack specification (v0.5.0 May 2025 through v0.7.0 March 2026, co-authored by Microsoft + Meta + Google). Four-plane vendor coverage, the August 2026 OCP 800V standardisation with NVIDIA inside the collaboration, and the strategic contest as rack-integration margin migrates above the interface layer. Companion to P4 Hall power at the sidecar/row/facility architecture layer.

Deep-dive · ~7,000 words
DTC companion · sensor-to-isolation architecture
Data Centre Leak Detection · the six-stage qualified path

Companion deep-dive to Direct-to-Chip Cooling. Six-stage qualified path from sensor contact to electrical and coolant isolation. OCP standardising the sensing element, NVIDIA GB300 pushing detection into the compute platform, Ecolab's $4.75bn CoolIT acquisition consolidating the cooling stack. 100 MW reference topology (~$14.7/kW IT, ~$1.25M campus total) with a companion calculator. Twenty-four named vendors mapped across DETECT / LOCALISE / CLASSIFY / AUTHORISE / ISOLATE / OBSERVE.

Deep-dive · ~4,300 words · interactive calculator
Grid-to-Chip P4.2 masterframe · battery role migration
Battery role migration · from R1 backup to R6 grid-forming

Six additive economic roles the same physical battery performs: backup (R1), ride-through (R2), power smoothing (R3), peak management (R4), grid services (R5) and grid-forming (R6). Each migration requires a specific technical, contractual and regulatory gate. Screen for R-stage exposure before chemistry, ownership model or geography. Connective frame across the lithium UPS, hall BESS, EU EED overlay and load-side flexibility companions.

Deep-dive · ~7,500 words
Grid-to-Chip P5 companion · interconnect boundary
Copper hits the wall in AI racks · the migration to optical, CPO and silicon photonics

Two simultaneous migrations at the interconnect layer. Boundary 1 is medium migration (copper to optical) at intra-rack scale. Boundary 2 is integration migration (pluggable transceiver to co-packaged optics) at rack-to-rack and switch-fabric scales. Silicon photonics fab ecosystem (GF Fotonix, TSMC, Tower, STMicro, IMEC), pluggable + DSP cohort (Broadcom, Marvell, Coherent, Lumentum) and CPO specialists (Ranovus, Ayar Labs, Lightmatter, Celestial AI). The economic control point may migrate toward whoever owns the electrical-to-optical boundary itself.

Deep-dive · ~7,300 words
P4.2 fourth companion · Aug 30 2026
How firm AI load becomes a flexible grid asset

An investment framework for the reclassification premium between firm AI capacity and firm-plus-flexible AI capacity. Control models (workload orchestration, storage-mediated facility, BTM dispatchable, DER aggregation, hyperscaler-owned); monetisation channels (market revenue, cost avoidance, time-to-power NPV), and where the reclassification premium routes. FERC RM26-4 validates flexibility as an interconnection attribute, not just a grid-services product. Fourth P4.2 companion to lithium UPS, hall BESS and the EU EED regulatory overlay.

Deep-dive · ~12,000 words
Grid-to-Chip P5 · Aug 2026 (series completion)
P5 · Rack to gate: SiC, GaN, POL and the last conversion cascade

Fifth and final stage of the Grid-to-Chip framework. Every new power architecture destroys one conversion layer and creates another; the investable question is where the value migrates. SiC + GaN wide-bandgap semiconductors, POL/VRM specialists, factorised power (Vicor), on-package IVR (now inside Analog Devices via the July 2026 Empower acquisition). Nvidia 800V direction of travel drives fewer conversion stages and high-ratio late-stage conversion near the accelerator. Two-tier vendor scorecard with architecture-displacement-risk column.

Deep-dive · 9,600 words
Grid-to-Chip P4 · Aug 2026
P4 · Hall power: four vintages and the 800V DC transition

Fourth stage. Low-voltage transformers, UPS, hall BESS, PDUs and the AC-to-DC rectification boundary migration. Four-vintage architecture (V1 legacy AC / V2 hybrid 800V sidecar / V3 row-level 800V / V4 native 800V facility) with per-vintage vendor scorecard. Companion P4.2 investment stack (see hub).

Deep-dive · ~11,500 words
Grid-to-Chip P3 · Aug 2026
P3 · Campus power: solid-state versus conventional MV transformers

Third stage. HV-to-MV step-down at the site substation, MV distribution across the campus, protection and switchgear. Solid-state transformer vs conventional MV transformer investment contest, driven by Nvidia 800V DC AI factory demand pull and constrained conventional MV transformer supply.

Deep-dive
Grid-to-Chip P2 · Aug 2026
P2 · Grid access: interconnection queues and the paperwork moat

Second stage. The scarce asset is a contract or a queue position. Interconnection agreements, ISO cluster studies, grid-services contracts, load-serving-entity arrangements. Build-versus-extract framework for grid capacity constraints.

Deep-dive
Grid-to-Chip P1 · Aug 2026
P1 · Electrons: firm power procurement for AI campuses

First stage. Firm power procurement: nuclear PPAs, SMRs, behind-the-meter gas plus storage, renewables firmed with dispatchable capacity. The economic unit is a contracted energy stream with defined firmness characteristics.

Deep-dive

Standalone deep-dives

Deep dive · Sep 2026 · AI DC Cooling
Data Centre Cooling · a double-click on Direct-to-Chip

Nine-layer physical stack from GPU die and TIM through cold plate, QDs, manifold and CDU out to the facility loop. CDU as testable control-point proposition. Single-phase vs two-phase reframed as an economic threshold, not a physics deadline. Chilldyne's negative-pressure architecture as the third distinct route. Consolidation race (Ecolab-CoolIT, Schneider-Motivair, Eaton-Boyd, Vertiv-STL/PurgeRite), capex by rack density, three TAM definitions, bull/bear disagreement grid, economic control x growth matrix, six bear cases, five triggers and the sovereign supply-chain overlay. Investor decision map by profile.

Deep-dive · ~51 min read
Underwriting deep-dive · Aug 2026
DG Matrix · multi-port SST underwriting

Reference underwriting for the Interport multi-port SST architecture. Nvidia MGX qualification chain, single-point-of-failure, customer-adoption trajectory, rent pool, decision tree and the falsification triggers that would break the thesis.

Case study
Tech spotlight · Aug 2026
SST 2026 · Heron, DG Matrix, Amperesand and the MV bottleneck

The three US SST pure-plays applied to the 800V DC + MV transformer supply gap. Head-to-head architectures, socket map, adoption scenarios, and the specific milestones that will decide the winner. Standalone tech spotlight ahead of the full Tech Spotlights series.

Standalone
Canonical reference · Sep 2026
The IVR Stack · the final bottleneck in AI accelerator power delivery

Canonical reference for on-package delivery (Layer 5 of the AI Power Chain). Four walls of physics, five-way IVR architecture taxonomy (Board VRM to on-die IVR), two-stage PDN, Empower / Ferric magnetics split, the ADI $1.5B acquisition anchor, the Marvell test, seven falsifiers, and the $1.5B reverse-underwrite.

Canonical
Underwriting deep-dive · Sep 2026
Ferric · underwriting the standalone integrated voltage regulator bet

Companion to The IVR Stack. Ferric is an option on the monetisation of merchant IVR scarcity. Value-creation engine, customer economic value (Gate 0), commercialisation ladder (evaluation to platform dependence), evidence-conditioned six-state valuation ladder from $200M to $4B+, three vetoes, tiered acquirer scorecard, reverse-underwrite arithmetic, and the Marvell test.

Underwriting

Interactive companion tools

Companion calculator · Sep 16 2026 · DTC cooling economics
DTC cooling · capex, opex + TCO calculator

Interactive scenario model for direct-to-chip cooling. Six architectural inputs drive CDU count, per-rack and campus capex, year-1 opex and 7-year TCO. Anchored to Fig C15 of the parent DTC essay: $14K / $44K / $87K per rack at 40 / 100 / 250 kW. Ships with a capex waterfall, TCO-over-time chart, payback engine on the 45 °C free-cooling and two-phase switches, 3×3 sensitivity matrix on electricity price and utilisation, URL-hash scenario sharing and one-click Markdown export.

Interactive tool · 6 inputs · 11 outputs · shareable
Companion calculator · Sep 16 2026 · leak-detection topology
Leak-detection coverage calculator

Companion interactive topology model to the leak-detection deep-dive. Campus MW and rack density flow through pod / CDU counts, cable metres, sensing endpoints, controllers and unit costs to a $/kW IT figure and campus total. Sensor-mix and coverage-tier controls let the user compare Tier 1 minimum through Tier 3 high-coverage on the same reference 100 MW hall.

Interactive tool · four inputs · live capex output