The DC-DC Transition series · Part 7 of 19
The DC-DC Transition · Part VII of XIII

Retrofit versus greenfield: the DC-DC decision framework

Retrofitting an existing AC facility to 800 VDC is technically possible but rarely economic. Break-even TCO analysis under typical assumptions favours greenfield by 30-50 percent over a ten-year hold. Retrofit only makes sense in three narrow cases. Most operators considering retrofit should scope a satellite greenfield instead.

Part VII in the DC-DC Transition series · independent analysis · no advisory conflict on any named party

The DC-DC Transition · thirteen essays for data centre power architects
  1. I. The real reason data centres are going DC
  2. II. Two architectures wearing the same name
  3. III. The architecture map
  4. IV. Arc behaviour + insurance
  5. V. Grounding + ground-fault protection
  6. VI. Battery integration at 800 VDC
  7. VII. Retrofit vs greenfield (you are here)
  8. VIII. 800 VDC and liquid cooling co-emergence
  9. IX. Power quality + grid interaction
  10. X. Standards: OCP, IEC, NEC, IEEE
  11. XI. Vendor economics: who wins the transition
  12. XII. Commissioning, skills, operational readiness
  13. XIII. The ten-year view

01Why retrofit is structurally hard

An existing AC-native data centre is a set of physical constraints an 800 VDC upgrade has to work around. Four constraints dominate: the existing MV-to-LV substation infrastructure sized for AC distribution, the cooling plant sized for the prior rack-density profile, the real-estate footprint fixed at build time, and the operational continuity requirement that constrains what can be de-energised for how long.

Each of these translates to a specific retrofit cost. Rebuilding the MV-to-LV distribution to feed 800 VDC racks requires either wholesale replacement of the LV switchgear (expensive) or interposition of an AC-to-800 VDC conversion stage between the existing LV and the new DC bus (defeats much of the efficiency argument). Increasing rack density to the level 800 VDC economics require means the existing cooling plant is undersized. Typically by 3-5x if the retrofit is targeting 100 kW+ per rack. The real-estate footprint constrains whether new equipment fits at all; some retrofits require external containerised additions. And the continuity requirement means the retrofit is typically phased over 12-24 months with the facility running throughout, which multiplies commissioning cost.

02Retrofit capex composition

Retrofit capex is dominated by the electrical distribution rebuild, not by the rack-level equipment upgrade. Understanding this composition is what separates a well-scoped retrofit business case from a poorly-scoped one.

Chart 1. Retrofit capex composition per MW at 800 VDC, illustrative

Electrical distribution rebuild dominates at 35-45 percent. Cooling plant upgrade is the second-largest bucket at 20-30 percent. Rack-level equipment (the visible part of the upgrade) is only 12-18 percent. Commissioning premium. The cost of executing the retrofit while the facility operates. Is 8-15 percent of total.

Composite from published retrofit case studies (Digital Realty, Iron Mountain, Global Switch retrofits 2024-2026) and vendor engineering estimates.

The counterintuitive line item is the commissioning premium. Executing electrical work on an operational facility requires isolation procedures, temporary power arrangements, work-window scheduling around production maintenance, and additional safety inspection. Vendor commissioning quotes for retrofit work typically run 30-50 percent above the equivalent greenfield quote for the same equipment scope.

03Greenfield capex composition

Greenfield capex has a categorically different composition. The electrical distribution can be sized natively for 800 VDC without accommodating existing infrastructure. The cooling plant can be sized for the target rack-density profile without oversizing to accommodate legacy air-cooling. The real-estate footprint can be optimised for the target facility layout. And the commissioning happens once, on an empty building, without operational-continuity constraints.

Chart 2. Greenfield capex composition per MW at 800 VDC, illustrative

Site preparation and shell construction dominate at 25-35 percent (land, foundations, building envelope). Electrical distribution runs 20-25 percent. Cheaper than retrofit because sized-natively. Cooling plant sized to target density runs 15-20 percent. Rack-level equipment is 15-20 percent. Commissioning is 5-8 percent of total, roughly a third of retrofit commissioning as a share.

Composite from PORTS-Pike-scale project economics, Modular Datacenter Stack essay estimates, and vendor engineering references.

04Ten-year TCO comparison

The headline retrofit-vs-greenfield economics show at ten-year total cost of ownership rather than at day-one capex. Retrofit day-one capex per MW is typically 60-80 percent of greenfield day-one capex, and this appears to be the reason some operators evaluate the two on capex alone and choose retrofit. That evaluation is incomplete.

Adding opex. Energy losses from the retrofit's inherent inefficiencies (extra conversion stages, undersized cooling), maintenance premium on hybrid AC/DC operation, insurance premium on a facility that carries both architectures during phased retrofit. Retrofit TCO per MW over ten years lands 30-50 percent above greenfield TCO. The break-even is not at day one; it is roughly year 3-4 of hold, after which greenfield pulls sharply ahead.

Chart 3. TCO retrofit vs greenfield over ten-year hold at 800 VDC target

Retrofit shows favourable day-one capex but the cumulative TCO curve crosses at year 3-4 and diverges thereafter. By year 10 greenfield TCO is 30-50 percent lower than retrofit TCO for equivalent 800 VDC capacity. The specific delta depends on the retrofit's efficiency penalty, its insurance premium, and its operational-continuity cost.

Illustrative TCO model. Base case assumptions: 200 MW facility, 10-year hold, retrofit efficiency penalty 6 pp, retrofit insurance premium 25 pp above equivalent greenfield.

05Break-even sensitivity: when retrofit makes sense

Three specific conditions make retrofit economically defensible: the facility is under 5 years old (so remaining useful life justifies the retrofit capital); the cooling plant is already liquid-cooling-ready (avoiding the largest single retrofit cost); the real-estate is constrained (greenfield alternative is not physically available). If all three hold, retrofit TCO can beat greenfield-plus-decommissioning. If only two hold, the case is marginal. If only one, retrofit is almost certainly the wrong choice.

Chart 4. Retrofit break-even sensitivity: facility age at retrofit decision

A facility retrofit at age 2 delivers positive NPV over the remaining useful life. At age 5, the calculation is marginal. At age 8, retrofit TCO exceeds greenfield-plus-decommissioning under most reasonable assumptions. The exception is where real-estate scarcity dominates. Permit-constrained urban markets where greenfield is unavailable.

NPV sensitivity model with 10-year hold, 10 percent discount rate, and typical retrofit efficiency penalty.

06Phased retrofit: the approach that sometimes works

A phased retrofit executes the upgrade one rack cluster (or row, or hall) at a time while the rest of the facility continues to operate. The advantage is operational continuity. No full shutdown, no revenue interruption. The disadvantage is a 25-40 percent timeline premium and 15-25 percent capex premium relative to a shutdown-and-retrofit approach, plus the complexity of running two architectures side-by-side during the transition period.

The specific cases where phased retrofit works well are hyperscaler campuses with multiple halls (retrofit one hall at a time while others handle the load), colocation facilities with staged tenant migrations (align retrofit with tenant renewals or moves), and facilities where the retrofit is targeting only a specific rack-cluster type (AI training racks, for example, while the rest of the facility remains AC).

07Named case studies

Public disclosure on data centre retrofits is thin because operators have limited incentive to publicise operational disruption. The following are the retrofit cases with useful public information as of mid-2026.

Operator / facilityRetrofit scopeReported outcomeLessons per public commentary
Digital Realty (Northern Virginia)Partial DC-native rack rows retrofit into existing AC halls~18-month project, on budgetCooling plant compatibility was the enabling factor; would not have been feasible without prior liquid-cooling investment
Iron Mountain (Denver)Retrofit of colocation racks to 400 VDC (bipolar) for a specific hyperscaler tenant~24-month project, cost overrun 15-20 percentPhased execution added 6+ months; tenant-specific spec reduced retrofit ROI to marginal
Global Switch (London)Discussed retrofit; ultimately chose greenfield satellite insteadRetrofit business case did not closeFacility age (12+ years) and cooling constraint drove the greenfield decision
Hyperscaler-A campus (undisclosed)Phased 800 VDC retrofit of a 3-hall campus, one hall per yearIn progress, first hall commissioned Q1 2026Success dependent on other halls absorbing load during commissioning windows

08Decision framework for operators evaluating both

A defensible decision framework has three gates. Gate 1: is the facility under 5 years old? If yes, proceed. If no, greenfield unless real-estate scarcity is binding. Gate 2: is the cooling plant already liquid-cooling-ready or easily converted? If yes, proceed. If no, greenfield unless retrofit budget can absorb 40+ percent cooling capex. Gate 3: is there real-estate for a greenfield satellite within acceptable distance of the retrofit target? If yes, greenfield-plus-decommission-old. If no, retrofit becomes the default.

Chart 5. Retrofit vs greenfield decision flowchart, three gates

Gate 1: facility age. Gate 2: cooling readiness. Gate 3: real-estate availability. Only projects clearing all three gates should proceed as retrofits. Everything else defaults to greenfield.

Framework synthesised from public retrofit case studies and DD-lens application to 12+ evaluations 2024-2026.

Chart 6. Per-MW capex scatter of documented retrofit and greenfield 800 VDC projects

Retrofit projects cluster around $12-18M per MW installed. Greenfield 800 VDC projects cluster around $8-12M per MW. The overlap band ($11-13M per MW) is where retrofit-well-executed meets greenfield-poorly-executed, and where the decision-framework detail matters.

Named projects from public disclosure plus author's DD engagements 2024-2026. Specific project data anonymised where not publicly disclosed.

09The reframe for anyone evaluating now

The default assumption that retrofit is cheaper than greenfield is wrong on TCO terms even when it appears right on capex terms. Operators evaluating an 800 VDC upgrade should build the ten-year TCO model, not the day-one capex model. The retrofit case survives that scrutiny only when facility age is below 5 years and cooling plant is compatible and real-estate scarcity is binding. In the majority of evaluations, the correct answer is greenfield satellite with staged decommissioning of the legacy facility.

Part VIII moves into cooling. The co-emerging technology that determines whether the retrofit or greenfield decision even matters. Above 100 kW per rack, 800 VDC and direct-to-chip liquid cooling are not independent architecture choices.

Glossary of terms used

800 VDC
800 Volts Direct Current. The emerging standard voltage class for AI-scale data centre power distribution.
DD
Due Diligence. The workstream discipline of testing a target's claims before committing to a transaction.
LV
Low Voltage. Typically below 1 kV, the class historically used for data centre power distribution below the MV substation.
MV
Medium Voltage. Typically 1 kV to 35 kV, the voltage class connecting data centre power distribution to the utility grid.
NPV
Net Present Value. Discounted cash-flow metric used to compare projects with different timing and duration.
TCO
Total Cost of Ownership. Capex plus opex over a defined hold period, discounted to present value.

Method and sources. Public information only. Retrofit case studies from published operator commentary (Digital Realty investor presentations, Iron Mountain data centre operations disclosures, Global Switch strategic communications 2024-2026). Capex composition estimates from vendor engineering quotes (Vertiv, Schneider Electric, Eaton, Delta Electronics public engineering references) and Modular Datacenter Stack essay work. TCO model assumptions are the author's; specific projects require project-specific modelling. No advisory relationship with any named party.

Series footer. Part VII in The DC-DC TransitionRelated reading: Part III on the six-layer architecture map (retrofit inventory), Part VIII on cooling co-emergence (cooling is the largest retrofit constraint), Part IV on arc-fault protection (retrofit interacts with insurance premium), Part XI on vendor economics (retrofit vs greenfield vendor mix differs). Companion context: The AI Power Chain Part VI on Modular Datacenter Stack economics, Due Diligence for the AI Buildout Part VIII on capex + growth stress-testing.

Written in a personal capacity. No advisory conflict on any named party. Nothing here is investment advice.