Scenario-weighted exit valuation for Ayar Labs and Lightmatter, driven by the four-scenario framework from the essay. Adjust the probability weights and exit-EV ranges. The tool shows the probability-weighted expected exit EV, the annualised return if realised in two years, and the distribution of outcomes. Sensitivities on Bear probability and Rubin Ultra allocation are where the investment judgement lives.
Ayar Labs
| Scenario | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | ||
| Base | ||
| Bull | ||
| Blue-sky |
Ayar Labs · expected exit EV
Probability-weighted mean across the four scenarios. Reference private valuation: $5.0B. Annualised return if realised in 2 years: —. P25 / P50 / P75: —. Probability of exit < reference: —.
Lightmatter
| Scenario | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | ||
| Base | ||
| Bull | ||
| Blue-sky |
Lightmatter · expected exit EV
Probability-weighted mean across the four scenarios. Reference private valuation: $4.4B. Annualised return if realised in 2 years: —. P25 / P50 / P75: —. Probability of exit < reference: —.
Equal-dollar paired position
Combined expected exit EV
Combined 2Y annualised return
Shared CPO outcome assumption (0 = independent · 1 = fully shared)
P(both bear-case) at dependence ρ: —. P(at least one bull-or-better): —. P(combined exit < $9.4B reference): —. Combined reference: $9.4B.
For each company, the model applies four scenario probabilities (Bear / Base / Bull / Blue-sky) to four exit-EV ranges. The scenario-weighted expected exit EV is determined analytically by the stated probabilities and range midpoints. The Monte Carlo (10,000 draws) is not used to estimate the expected value; it produces the distribution and the P25 / P50 / P75 percentiles.
Within each scenario, the model assumes a uniform distribution over the low-to-high range because there is insufficient evidence to justify a more specific probability shape. A $6-9B base case is treated as equally likely at any point between $6B and $9B, which is a simplifying assumption, not a claim about the underlying commercial distribution.
The combined view assumes equal dollar allocation to Ayar and Lightmatter at their respective reference private valuations ($5.0B and $4.4B). The shared-outcome slider is a scenario-dependence assumption, not an empirically estimated correlation. At zero dependence, each company draws its scenario independently. At full dependence, both companies always draw the same scenario rank (both Bear together, both Base together). Values in between mix the two. The dependence is applied to scenario selection, not directly to the EV distributions.
The tool compares each company's current private-market reference valuation with its scenario exit EV. It does not model cash, debt, dilution, liquidation preferences, or transaction-specific terms. "Reference private valuation" is an equity concept; scenario exit EV is an enterprise concept. The comparison is informative but not identical to a matched valuation exercise.
The two-year annualised return is calculated as (exit EV / reference)1/2 − 1. This is the return that would be earned if the exit occurred exactly two years from today. Actual exit timing is not modelled and could be shorter or longer.
This is an analytical toolkit accompanying an editorial deep-dive. It is not investment advice. Private-market secondary pricing is thin and can gap materially on funding events or Nvidia disclosures; the reference valuations shown are point-in-time. Adjust inputs to explore your own scenario weights. All calculations run in your browser. Data as of September 11, 2026.